Artículo de revista
Modeling wind speed with a long-term horizon and high-time interval with a hybrid fourier-neural network model
Registro en:
2369-0739
2369-0747
Corporación Universidad de la Costa
REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
Autor
Rueda-Bayona, Juan Gabriel
Cabello Eras, Juan José
Sagastume, Alexis
Institución
Resumen
The limited availability of local climatological stations and the limitations to predict the wind speed (WS) accurately are significant barriers to the expansion of wind energy (WE) projects worldwide. A methodology to forecast accurately the WS at the local scale can be used to overcome these barriers. This study proposes a methodology to forecast the WS with high-resolution and long-term horizons, which combines a Fourier model and a nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR). Given the nonlinearities of the WS variations, a NAR model is used to forecast the WS based on the variability identified with the Fourier analysis. The NAR modelled successfully 1.7 years of windspeed with 3 hours of the time interval, what may be considered the longest forecasting horizon with high resolution at the moment.