Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados

Abstract

In the current scenario, about 99.8% of transports are powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). Transport is still responsible for 24% of direct CO2 emissions through the burning of fuels. Presently, efforts have been made to develop electric vehicles, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in mobility. Concomitantly, intense research focused at improving the performance and efficiency of ICEs has been carried out. For researchers, politicians and business decision makers, knowing the stage of technology development, trends and factors that influence technology diffusion is essential to make assertive decisions. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the technology lifecycle of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehicles. Still, we tried to identify the critical success factors (CSF) for the diffusion of electric vehicles. Through patent data collected at the USPTO (United States Patent Trademark Office) and at the EPO (European Patent Office), the technology life cycle was estimated, using the Logistic model and the Loglet Lab 4 software. The growth rates were estimated for each of the powertrain systems. Also from the documents collected in Scopus and Web of Science databases, through a systematic literature review, the main FCS that influence the diffusion of electric vehicles were gathered. The results showed that the ICE has a survival of about two to three decades until the saturation in the number of patents occurs (expected for 2037-2043). Patent data shows that BEVs (Battery electric vehicles) are the “hot” area of the technology movement, with annual growth rates between 6-7%, causing the greatest research and development (R&D) efforts. BEVs and FCEVs (Fuel cell electric vehicles) showed the highest technology diffusion speeds in 2020. Regardless, electric vehicles still have numerous barriers to their diffusion, in technological, economic, environmental, political, social and marketing aspects.