Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso de Graduação
Análise dos determinantes do investimento em carteira para o Brasil no período de 2000 a 2019
Fecha
2022-08-18Registro en:
ESCOBAR, R. F. Análise dos determinantes do investimento em carteira para o Brasil no período de 2000 a 2019. 2022. 41 p.
Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Ciências Econômicas)-
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS, 2022
Autor
Escobar, Rafael Flores
Institución
Resumen
The phenomenon of financial globalization has contributed both to the intensification
of trade relations between countries, as well as facilitated international portfolio
diversification through technological innovations and the reduction of barriers to
foreign capital flows. However, globalization was not a homogeneous phenomenon,
having reached emerging countries only in the 1990s. Since then, the Brazilian
economy has been the destination of foreign capital flows, and these flows consist of
both direct investment and portfolio investment. Portfolio investment flows, also
called Short-Term Capital, are naturally volatile and with essentially speculative
objectives, which makes these flows dangerous for economies with a history of high
inflation. Given this context, considering the volatility of short-term capital flows and
their impact on the conduct of macroeconomic policy, this study aims to analyze the
determinants of foreign investment in portfolio, called passive portfolio investment, for
the period from January 2000 to December 2019, employing the push-pull factor
approach. Pull factors correspond to domestic variables that attract foreign capital
flows to the country, whereas push factors correspond to unfavorable external
variables in developed countries that drive away capital flows and toward emerging
economies. The methodology adopted consists in estimating the Regressive Auto
Vectors (VAR) model, in view of the adequacy of the model for estimating the
dynamic relationships between the variables. The results point to the predominance
of pull factors over push factors, offering evidence of a greater solidity of
macroeconomic fundamentals of the Brazilian economy for the period analyzed.