Efecto a largo plazo de los choques de precipitación en el periodo de gestación y la formación de capital humano

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of rainfall shocks during intrauterine life on long-term cognitive and non-cognitive skill development. Drawing on information on cognitive measures and personality traits collected by the Young Lives survey in Vietnam and variation across communes and the gestational period of children in the survey, we estimate the effect of both excess and reduced rainfall shocks on long-term cognitive and non-cognitive skill development. We find that in utero exposure to excess precipitation shocks increases math scores by 59.2 and 42.1 percentage points over the standard deviation at ages 8 and 15. The positive results of excess rainfall shocks are found mainly in regions where water-intensive rice cultivation is prevalent. However, when the excess rainfall shock measured by SPI is greater than 2, the effect on cognitive skills is negative. On the other hand, children exposed in utero to decreased precipitation shocks have lower math test scores by 27.1 percentage points above the standard deviation at age 15 years. The results are robust when validated with the Romano-Wolf test. Given the importance of the development of these skills for academic, occupational and social performance, the persistent and negative effects found suggest that failure to mitigate the impacts of these types of shocks can lead to deepening inequalities and create disadvantages that make it difficult for people to reach their potential, mainly in more disadvantaged environments.