Predicting ecosystem collapse: Spatial factors that influence risks to tropical ecosystems

Abstract

Biological traits explain extinction at the species level, but what factors explain collapse at the ecosystem level? Using ecosystem Red List criteria from the International Union for Conservation of Nature, we calculated risk of collapse in El Salvador’s ecosystems and determined that it is nonrandom, indicating the existence of explaining factors.We present the first model to predict risk of ecosystem collapse, showing that human density and soil capability are significantly associated with risk of collapse and explain 68% of the total variation.To attain an effective management strategy for global ecosystems, we suggest not only determining risk of collapse, but also the building of simple prediction models to establish priorities, and the founding of a worldwide database at the ecosystem level once a single classification system is agreed upon.