Modelo predictivo del riesgo de impago en servicios de conexión prestados por transportadores de energía colombianos para proyectos de generación solar

Abstract

Colombia generates electric power mainly through hydroelectric centrals, but photovoltaic power seems to be a promising alternative. Power transporters offer connection services to the power generators, but these photovoltaic power projects seem to be a financial risk for the transporter. Power transporters could mitigate risk by predicting credit risk for these power projects. In this paper, a prediction model for credit risk for these solar power projects was developed. The model was developed in three stages. Academic literature was researched, searching for the diverse models used in Colombia and other countries in similar situations. After these literature review, a financial model was formulated; the selected model used a Discounted Cash Flow (DCCF) with a Real Options Approach (ROA). The model was then applied to 3 projects chosen from a public database of photovoltaic power projects, and Net Present Value obtained through DCCF is compared to the ROA. It was found that ROA allows the power transporter the possibility of investing step by step, evaluating market conditions that change the project value and without assuming the risk of being fully invested from the beginning.