info:eu-repo/semantics/article
A principal components/singular spectrum analysis approach to ENSO and PDO influences on rainfall in western Irán
Registro en:
Biabanaki, Monireh & Eslamian, Saeid & Cañón, Julio & Boni, Giorgio & Gheysari, Mahdi. (2014). A principal components/singular spectrum analysis approach to ENSO and PDO influences on rainfall in western Iran. Hydrology Research. 45(2). 250. 10.2166/nh.2013.166.
1998-9563
10.2166/nh.2013.166
2224-7955
Autor
Cañón Barriga, Julio Eduardo
Biabanaki, Monireh
Eslamian, Saeid
Abedi Koupai, Jahangir
Boni, Giorgio
Gheysari, Mahdi
Institución
Resumen
ABSTRACT : This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in western Iran by means of the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), calculated in annual and seasonal aggregations for wet and dry
conditions over 46 synoptic stations with monthly data from 1957 to 2008. Regions of homogeneous
SPI realizations were delimited using principal components analysis (PCA) to highlight major variation
modes distinguishable in the basin and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) was performed over the
reconstructed values of SPI to identify their oscillation modes. Extreme SPI values associated with El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were also evaluated. Results
show two significant oscillations around 4 and 8 years on the SPI with an increase in precipitation
variability since 1990 and a tendency to have less rain during the cold season and more rain during the
warm season. We calculated standardized products among SPI, ENSO, and PDO to determine years in
which the indices reinforce each other, 1986, 1992, 1999, and 2008 being particularly significant in the
associations. These results are important for water managers in western Iran because they indicate
significant changes in precipitation regimes associated with ENSO and PDO signals that will help to
assess the occurrence of droughts and floods in the area COL0009832