Artículo de revista
Early warning method for the commodity prices based on artificial neural networks: SMEs case
Registro en:
0000-2010
Corporación Universidad de la Costa
REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
Autor
Silva, Jesus
MOJICA HERAZO, JULIO CESAR
Rojas Millán, Rafael Humberto
Pineda Lezama, Omar Bonerge
Morgado Gamero, W.B.
Varela Izquierdo, Noel
Institución
Resumen
Applications based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been developed thanks to the advance of the
technological progress which has permitted the development of sales forecasting on consumer products, improving
the accuracy of traditional forecasting systems. The present study compares the performance of traditional models
against other more developed systems such as ANN, and Support Vector Machines or Support Vector Regression
(SVM-SVR) machines. It demonstrates the importance of considering external factors such as macroeconomic and
microeconomic indicators, like the prices of related products, which affect the level of sales in an organization. The
data was collected from a group of supermarkets belonging to the SMEs sector in Colombia. At first, a pre-processing
was carried out to clean, adapt and standardize data bases. Then, since there was no labeled information about the
pairs of substitute or complementary products, it was necessary to implement a cross-elasticity analysis. In addition,
a harmonic average (f1-score) was considered at several points to establish priorities in some products and obtained
results. The model proposed in this study shows its potential application in the product sales forecasting with high
rotation in SMEs supermarkets since their results are more accurate than those obtained using traditional procedures.