Article
The impact of super‑spreader cities, highways, and intensive care availability in the early stages of the COVID‑19 epidemic in Brazil
Registro en:
NICOLELIS, Miguel A. L. et al. The impact of super‑spreader cities, highways, and intensive care availability in the early stages of the COVID‑19 epidemic in Brazil. Scientific Reports, v. 11, n. 13001, p. 1-12, 2021.
2045-2322
10.1038/s41598-021-92263-3
Autor
Nicolelis, Miguel A. L.
Raimundo, Rafael L. G.
Peixoto, Pedro S.
Andreazzi, Cecilia S.
Resumen
Although international airports served as main entry points for SARS-CoV-2, the factors driving the
uneven geographic spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil remain mostly unknown. Here
we show that three major factors infuenced the early macro-geographical dynamics of COVID-19
in Brazil. Mathematical modeling revealed that the “super-spreading city” of São Paulo initially
accounted for more than 85% of the case spread in the entire country. By adding only 16 other
spreading cities, we accounted for 98–99% of the cases reported during the frst 3 months of the
pandemic in Brazil. Moreover, 26 federal highways accounted for about 30% of SARS-CoV-2’s case
spread. As cases increased in the Brazilian interior, the distribution of COVID-19 deaths began to
correlate with the allocation of the country’s intensive care units (ICUs), which is heavily weighted
towards state capitals. Thus, severely ill patients living in the countryside had to be transported
to state capitals to access ICU beds, creating a “boomerang efect” that contributed to skew the
distribution of COVID-19 deaths. Therefore, if (i) a lockdown had been imposed earlier on in spreader capitals, (ii) mandatory road trafc restrictions had been enforced, and (iii) a more equitable
geographic distribution of ICU beds existed, the impact of COVID-19 in Brazil would be signifcantly
lower.