Article
Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks
Registro en:
MASSAD, Eduardo et al. Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks. Infectious Disease Modelling, v. 2, p. 441-454, 2017.
2468-0427
10.1016/j.idm.2017.12.001
Autor
Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Resumen
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community
affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the
incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived
straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible
mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The
method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue
infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like
Zika and chikungunya viruses.