Article
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil
Registro en:
LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 2014
1935-2727
10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283
Autor
Lewnard, Joseph A
Jirmanus, Lara
Nery Júnior, Nivison
Machado, Paulo Roberto
Glesby, Marshall J
Ko, Albert Icksang
Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino
Schriefer, Albert
Weinberger, Daniel M
Resumen
Introduction: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is
known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinelygathered
weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.
Methodology/Principal Findings: We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural
region of Bahı´a, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models
accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up
to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.
Significance: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to
forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological
mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.