Article
Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset
Registro en:
BENVENUTO, Domenico et al. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in Brief, v. 29, p. 1-5, 2020.
2352-3409
10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340
Autor
Benvenuto, Domenico
Giovanetti, Marta
Vassallo, Lazzaro
Angeletti, Silvia
Ciccozzi, Massimo
Resumen
Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with
free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has been recognized as a
global threat, and several studies are being conducted using
various mathematical models to predict the probable evolution of
this epidemic. These mathematical models based on various factors and analyses are subject to potential bias. Here, we propose a
simple econometric model that could be useful to predict the
spread of COVID-2019. We performed Auto Regressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction on the Johns Hopkins
epidemiological data to predict the epidemiological trend of the
prevalence and incidence of COVID-2019. For further comparison
or for future perspective, case definition and data collection have
to be maintained in real time.