Quais os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a abundância do marsupial Marmosops Incanus?

Abstract

Climate change is one of the biggest issues of the 21st century, threatening ecological balance and affecting all levels of the biodiversity. Climate change can affect precipitation and temperature, altering biome distributions and changing species abundances. Marsupials are susceptible to changes in their habitats and many species are dependent on forested areas. Marmosops incanus is an endemic marsupial species of the Atlantic Forest and it is a good model for predictive modeling studies to assess the effects of climate change on species abundance. The goal of this study was to assess how climate change may affect the potential abundance of Marmosops incanus in the Atlantic Forest. Data on its relative abundance were obtained from a published database and literature review. Models for climate change scenario projections are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report for the 2061-2080 period. Our results suggest that M. incanus may lose most of the areas where it is abundant currently. Areas suitable to potential gain in abundance are located mostly in the south of the Minas Gerais state and the areas of potential loss in abundance are located in the Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo states, areas where M. incanus is locally abundant. Areas suitable to potential gain in abundance may pose a challenge to species survival, since the Atlantic Forest is currently a mosaic with few large areas, especially in the southern and southeastern Brazil. However, areas in Minas Gerais are the least suitable for M. incanus potential gain in abundance, since the Atlantic Forest in this state has only 7% of its original cover. A positive factor for M. incanus may be that the areas for potential gain in abundance are geographically close to areas where the species is currently abundant. This proximity may facilitate its adaptation and dispersal to these new areas, since it can disperse to these areas more easily than to distant areas. Thus, this study can contribute to conservation efforts and help management efforts to prevent the potential effects of climate change on this marsupial species.