Estrés financiero en el sector manufacturero de Ecuador

Abstract

El presente artículo clasifica a las empresas manufactureras del Ecuador en empresas con estrés financiero (ECE) y sin estrés financiero (ESE). Para tal efecto, se clarifica el significado de estrés financiero y el criterio bajo el cual una empresa sería clasificada como ECE o ESE. Además, se recurre a dos modelos ampliamente utilizados en el medio: el análisis discriminante múltiple y la regresión logística, basados en los trabajos previos de Altman y Ohlson, respectivamente. El estudio se enfoca en las empresas del sector manufacturero ecuatoriano durante el periodo 2014-2018. Se destaca que uno de los hallazgos principales es que, en algunos casos, los signos de los coeficientes de los modelos estimados difieren de los modelos originales de Altman y Ohlson. Sin embargo, en ambos casos, las tasas de precisión de este estudio son mayores que las de los modelos originales. Finalmente, se encontró que las microempresas son las que presentan mayor estrés en sentido financiero.

This article classifies Ecuadorian manufacturing companies into companies with and without financial distress. To the effect, the meaning of financial distress (FD) is clarified, as well as the criteria under which a company would be classified as a company with or without FD. Additionally, the study applies two models that are widely used in the middle: multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression, based on the previous works of Altman and Ohlson, respectively. The research has focused on companies in the Ecuadorian manufacturing sector during the period 2014-2018. As one of the main results, the study found that the signs of the coefficients of the estimated models differ in some cases with respect to those of the original Altman and Ohlson models. Despite this, the precision rates of the present study are higher than those of the original models in both cases. Finally, it was found that microenterprises are the most distressed in a financial sense.