Climatic factors and the incidence of dengue in Cartagena, Colombian Caribbean Region

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The influence of climate on the epidemiology of dengue has scarcely been studied in Cartagena. METHODS: The relationship between dengue cases and climatic and macroclimatic factors was explored using an ecological design and bivariate and time-series analyses during lag and non-lag months. Data from 2008-2017 was obtained from the national surveillance system and meteorological stations. RESULTS: Cases correlated only with climatic variables during lag and non-lag months. Decreases in precipitation and humidity and increases in temperature were correlated with an increase in cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide useful information for establishing and strengthening dengue prevention and control strategies.