Impact of Wind Speed Distortions on Chilean Power System Expansion Planning

Abstract

In this paper, we study investment decisions regarding power generation and transmission when considering wind speed distortions due to Climate Change. We use a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) model to analyze the optimal investments in diverse types of power generation technologies, throughout the years and geographical locations. We implement our model using the main Chilean power system. We compare two scenarios: one assuming that climate change affects wind speeds and hence wind farm capacity factors and the other assuming it does not. Our results reveal that, when taking into account the impact of climate change on wind speed, the optimal power generation and transmission expansion plan is significantly different than when ignoring this effect. The variation of wind speed affects not only wind power investments, but also other-technology generation investments.