Impact of the Reform to Non-custodial Sanctions in Chile

Abstract

Objectives This paper assesses the impact of the new regime of non-custodial sanctions implemented in Chile in 2013. It aims to contribute to the evidence regarding structural changes in systems involving non-custodial sanctions. Methods To identify the causal efect of the new regime of non-custodial sanctions on recidivism, we perform three complementary estimations. First, a before and after regression model of recidivism was estimated. Second, in order to compare cohorts with noncustodial and custodial sanctions, we build a diference-in-diference estimation to control for time-invariant confounding factors. Additionally, we use controls to address potential diferences across groups not related to the change in treatment status. Third, we estimate the yearly efect through diference-in-diferences for multiple periods. Results The results suggest a small statistically signifcant increase of 1.54 percentage points in the recidivism rate, attributable to the reform of non-custodial sanctions during the frst year of its implementation. After that, the reform impact on recidivism begins to stabilise at zero. Conclusions The results are consistent with a neutral scenario whereby the recidivism rate eventually remains stable after the reform was implemented despite the increase in the number of people sentenced. Considering that the reform helped to decongest prisons, a neutral scenario on recidivism seems favourable for the Chilean penal system.