Article
What can we do to forecast tsunami hazards in the near field given large epistemic uncertainty in rapid seismic source inversions
Registro en:
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 45, Issue 10, 28 May 2018, Pages 4944-4955
0094-8276
Autor
Cienfuegos, Rodrigo
Catalán, Patricio A.
Urrutia, Alejandro
Benavente, Roberto
Aránguiz Muñoz, Rafael Enrique
González, Gabriel
Resumen
Artículo de publicación ISI The variability in obtaining estimates of tsunami inundation and runup on a near‐real‐time tsunami hazard assessment setting is evaluated. To this end, 19 different source models of the Maule Earthquake were considered as if they represented the best available knowledge an early tsunami warning system could consider. Results show that large variability can be observed in both coseismic deformation and tsunami variables such as inundated area and maximum runup. This suggests that using single source model solutions might not be appropriate unless categorical thresholds are used. Nevertheless, the tsunami forecast obtained from aggregating all source models is in good agreement with observed quantities, suggesting that the development of seismic source inversion techniques in a Bayesian framework or generating stochastic finite fault models from a reference inversion solution could be a viable way of dealing with epistemic uncertainties in the framework of nearly‐real‐time tsunami hazard mapping.