Using GRACE to quantify the depletion of terrestrial water storage in Northeastern Brazil: The Urucuia Aquifer System

Abstract

Covering a plateau area of approximately 125,000 km2, the Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) represents a national strategic water resource in the drought-stricken Northeastern part of Brazil. Variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) extracted using a three-model-ensemble from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission showed a negative balance equal to water stress. Monthly GRACE-derived water storage changes from 2002 to 2014 were compared with those derived from an independent hydrologic water balance of the region using in situ measurements and estimated evapotranspiration rates. Trend analyses revealed a TWS depletion rate of 6.5 ± 2.6 mm yr−1, but no significant decline in precipitation as observed from available data records. Water storage depletion was found to be driven by anthropogenic impacts rather than by natural climatic variability. The obtained results demonstrate that GRACE is able to adequately capture water storage changes at the subregional scale, particularly during dry seasons.