Artículos de revistas
Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally
Fecha
2019-06-16Registro en:
Geophysical Research Letters. Washington: Amer Geophysical Union, v. 46, n. 11, p. 6041-6049, 2019.
0094-8276
10.1029/2019GL081898
WOS:000477616200045
Autor
Northeast Normal Univ
Univ Missouri
Univ New South Wales
Barcelona Supercomp Ctr
Vrije Univ Amsterdam
Indian Meteorol Dept
Univ Tasmania
South African Weather Serv
Univ Pretoria
Jeju Natl Univ
Tokyo Metropolitan Univ
Univ Buenos Aires
Natl Univ Mongolia
Informat & Res Inst Meteorol Hydrol & Environm
Univ Cantabria
King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals
Govt Coll Univ
Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci
Univ Abomey Calavi
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
China Meteorol Adm
Univ Fed Rio Grande do Norte
Institución
Resumen
Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45 degrees N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.