O modelo logístico de Verhulst sujeito a incertezas na condição inicial

Abstract

This work analyzes the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the initial condition. The probability functions density of the population density and its inflection point are calculated using the distribution function of the initial population, considered/modelled in this work as a random variable. Probability density functions, statistical moments and confidence intervals of the population density and its inflection point are obtained analytically for the case where the initial population is uniformly distributed. Finally, computational tests are performed to illustrate the main results.