Riesgo de Tsunami en Ecuador

Abstract

The continental coast of Ecuador is close to the subduction of the Nazca plate and the South American and corresponds to one of the most seismic areas in the world. Of 58 tsunamis that have arrived in the Ecuadorian coast, 19% turned out to be destructive. In this paper the risk estimating probabilities according to the source of generation is quantified. In the continental coastline, 50% of destructive tsunamis are near-field, 25% intermediate and 25% field far field. In the Galapagos Islands, 75% of destructive tsunamis are far-field, 25% of near-field and 0% intermediatefield. A near-field tsunami has three times more likely to be destructive in the continental coastline one intermediate and far field. In Galapagos, the probability that a destructive tsunami is independent of the source of generation. If a distant source tsunami is destructive Galapagos, there is a 28% chance to be destructive in the continental coast. If a near-field tsunami is destructive in the continental coast, then it is very likely to also be in the archipelago.