Evaluación de confiabilidad en las unidades generadoras de CELEC EP - Hidropaute (Mazar & Molino) utilizando el método de simulación de Montecarlo

Abstract

It presents the evaluation of reliability of generating units Hidropaute, obtaining indicators that quantify the level of trust that owns the system, based on the analysis of failures and downtimes, for a given observation time. We determined reliability parameters, using the method of Kolmogorov Smirnov is modeled faults and downtimes for Hidropaute plants, obtaining the probability distributions model, Monte Carlo simulation is performing for Central Mazar with an error of 5% Central and Odds for Molino, the simulation performs mathematical calculations and conducting experiments with different scenarios created by the randomness of the same system, providing estimates of actual results.