Time-variant failure probability of critical slopes under strong rainfall hazard including mitigation effects

dc.creatorDE LEON ESCOBEDO, DAVID; 120144
dc.creatorCONTRERAS GARDUÑO, JORGE ALBERTO; 170137
dc.creatorDE LEON ESCOBEDO, DAVID
dc.creatorCONTRERAS GARDUÑO, JORGE ALBERTO
dc.date2020-02-27T20:39:35Z
dc.date2020-02-27T20:39:35Z
dc.date2020-01-21
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-12T23:42:42Z
dc.date.available2022-10-12T23:42:42Z
dc.identifier1744-8980
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11799/105942
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/4150558
dc.descriptionSe presenta una formulación probabilista para evaluar el nivel de seguridad de taludes sujetos a lluvias intensas.
dc.descriptionThe time-variant failure probability for critical slopes under strong rainfalls, which cause reductions on the soil shear strength, is calculated and compared to the target failure probability. The soil properties and the rainfall characteristics are considered as random and the correlation between rainfall intensity and duration is included to assess the impact of water infiltration on the slope failure probability. The failure probability, defined as the probability that the safety factor is less than 1, is calculated through a Monte Carlo simulation process. The paper emphasizes the importance of the time during the water infiltration into the soil, as the rainfall sequence occurs. The target failure probability, derived from the minimum expected life-cycle cost, is compared to the slope failure probability to decide if the slope requires mitigation measures. If mitigation is required, the slope model is modified and a new annual failure probability is calculated. The slope annual failure probability, for 3 sites under strong rainfall hazard, is found to be around 0.78. However, by introducing mitigation actions, the failure probability reduces to 0.037. The slope failure probability allows for the risk-based prioritization of slopes
dc.descriptionConacyt, Problemas Nacionales, proyecto 247783
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherTaylor and Francis
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.subjecttaludes
dc.subjectestabilidad
dc.subjectconfiabilidad
dc.subjectintensidad de lluvias
dc.subjectprobabilidad de falla
dc.subjectINGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA
dc.titleTime-variant failure probability of critical slopes under strong rainfall hazard including mitigation effects
dc.typeArtículo
dc.typearticle


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