Tesis
Análise econômico-financeira da implantação de sistemas integrados para a produção de novilhas leiteiras
Fecha
2015-06-08Registro en:
OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, Orlando Lúcio de. Análise econômico-financeira da implantação de sistemas integrados para a produção de novilhas leiteiras. 2015. 63 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Zootecnia) - Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, Campus Universitário de Sinop, Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais, Sinop, 2015.
Autor
Carnevalli, Roberta Aparecida
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6658650497110299
Carnevalli, Roberta Aparecida
262.661.428-99
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6658650497110299
Pedreira, Bruno Carneiro e
791.490.575-53
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2484913274684376
262.661.428-99
Peres, Afonso Aurélio de Carvalho
166.604.408-36
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1840173466290463
Institución
Resumen
The integrated production systems are characterized by optimal use of productive
resources in order to maximize the use of soil, plant and animal, ensuring income and
stimulating environmental preservation. However, its adoption is still limited primarily
by the lack of economic feasibility studies of these systems. Thus, this study aims to
assess the economic feasibility of the implementation of integrated systems for the
production of dairy heifers in northern Mato Grosso, getting the economic profitability
indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (TIR) and the invested
capital recovery time (discounted Payback). The item that has the most impact on
economic outcomes was determined by the sensitivity analysis. The financial risk was
determined by Monte Carlo simulation, where the probability of failure of the activity
was observed in the face of price fluctuations occurred in the market. The evaluated
system were: crop-livestock integration system (CLI) and crop-livestock-forest
integration system (CLFI) with planting two rows of double rows of eucalyptus only on
the sides, distant 52 meters each other. This setting is part of the experimental base where
they were generated the crop yield data, livestock and forest, used to adjust a mirrored
situation in producer reality. Designed in this situation, the field of exploration was 14
years for an area of 50 ha for each system. The cash flow spreadsheets considered a period
from 2010 to 2015, based on data collected on experimental basis. NPVs were calculated
applying discount rates of 6, 8, 10 and 12% per year. Both systems had a positive NPV
when subjected to a rate of 10% pa. The IRR was 11,37% and 10,73% for the CLIS and
CLFIS systems, respectively. Finance capital invested was recovered after 8 years and 8
month for CLIS and after 8 years and 3 months for the CLFIS. The most sensitive
category to price changes was the selling price of the heifers with 4 months of confirmed
pregnancy. The designed systems showed low probability of failure subjected to a rate of
10% per year for CLIS e 8% for CLFIS. Both systems are economically viable but cannot
be compared because they are different technology packages and each producer or
investor should choose the system that best suits their reality.