Condicionantes estruturais e domésticas à indústria de defesa em países emergentes: análise nos casos de Índia, Turquia, Brasil e África do Sul

Abstract

The legitimacy of military spending and state investment in defense is subject to frequent challenges and scrutiny. The existing international order, the pressures for a domestic budget balance and the difficulty in assessing technological spillovers contribute to make the debate even more nebulous. Using the comparative-historical method, this thesis proposes to explain the trajectories of the defense industry in emerging states in the post-World War II international order, notably India, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil. The working hypothesis is that the success of the defense industry depends on its ability to become global, taking advantage of the interaction between structural and domestic factors. The work's analytical model has as independent variables: the type of perceived threat - global, regional and null - and the type of State - predatory, intermediate or developmental; as intervening variables the type of alliance – to the hegemon, to the challenger or autonomist - and the role of the State - custodian, demiurge, midwifery and husbandry; as dependent variable, the type of defense industry: developed globalized, minimal globalized, developed autochthonous and minimal autochthonous. India and Turkey present well-defined regional threats, while Brazil and South Africa have lower levels of regional threats. However, explanations based solely on security considerations are insufficient to explain the evolution of the defense industrial bases existing in these countries. The cases analyzed here result in defense industries of the developed globalized and minimally globalized type, whose differences are products of different patterns of state action and are manifested mainly in the access to national and international defense markets, with greater or lesser production specialization and responding to different logics of innovation, domestic content, export promotion and access to technology.