Economia do crime: incentivos e o papel do estado na prevenção da criminalidade, uma análise para o período de 2008 a 2013

Abstract

Criminality has been one of the main problems faced by society, and a huge obstacle to the country’s social and economic development, generating a frightening and insecure environment. The present work seeks to analyze the criminality and the factors that contribute to the illicit acts committed by individuals. We sought behavioral evidences through a personal, social and state-focused analysis of criminality, in which the government is capable of dissuade criminal activities through its expenses- whenever these are efficient. This paper focuses on money related crimes, using the robbery and drug trafficking rates as the dependent variables in the econometric models, estimated to obtain more consistent answers on the reactions of criminals and potential criminals to changes in certain variables. The independent variables used were government expenditure in education, public safety and social assistance, GDP per capita, unemployment, inequality and male youth. The data used concern Brazilian states, from the year of 2008 to 2013. The results obtained showed that security expenses have strong impacts on crime deterrence, educational expenses increase robbery rates, unemployment and income are also important for the criminal analysis, despite their ambiguous effects according to theory. In addition, as for trafficking, the results indicate that the more egalitarian a society is, the greater is the crime.