Determinantes do investimento estrangeiro direto e em carteira no Brasil: uma análise empírica

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the relationships between foreign direct (FDI) and portfolio (FPI) investments in Brazil and their internal macroeconomic determinants, in order to answer the following question: there are differences between the FDI and the FPI in Brazil and its internal macroeconomic determinants? In this sense, we used a bibliographic review, cluster analysis and statistics, and the estimation of two Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), with the following dependent variables: foreign direct investment and foreign investment in portfolio. The independent variables were risk, trade opening, exchange rate and inflation rate. The results indicated that the risk variable was against foreign direct investment, but positive for foreign portfolio investment. The opening of trade did not stimulate the FDI, on the other hand, it was favorable to the FPI. The exchange rate devaluation acted differently to foreign investment, serving as a stimulus to the FDI and discouraging the FPI. The inflation rate variable showed a positive sign for foreign direct investment, however, it was negative for foreign portfolio investment.