Os determinantes dos investimentos privados e o efeito crowding-out no Brasil para o período de 2003-2015

Abstract

It is known that the current political-economic context in Brazil is quite troubled, where there seem to be very heterogeneous ideas regarding the macroeconomic behavior that has been adopted by the government, this topic has been debated exhaustively in recent years. This study has the objective of verify if there is a crowding-out effect in the Brazilian economy, where new public investments replace private investments, becoming a national economy increasingly dependent on the government to avoid resections, because the private sector applies its capital in public bonds instead to real investments, becoming public expenditures inefficient. Firstly, some studies on previous results are presented, however, for different periods. After, diverse of investments theories are exposed too, they are: the classic theory, the keynesian theory, the accelerator model of investment, the neoclassical theory and Tobin’s q model. The research is based on an economic analysis based on quarterly data collected for each variable included in the equation, but before the unit root tests has been madden to corroborate their stationarity. To estimate de equation, two methodologies has been used: a model in level with elasticities because the series presented cointegration, and a VAR model in order to see the impulse response effects of each variable when a shock over government spending occurs. The results suggest the existence of the crowding-out effect in the Brazilian economy for the period between 2003 and 2015, similar to the conclusions found by other authors.