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        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
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        Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

        Registro en:
        0048-9697
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138890
        http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10563
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138890
        http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3508125
        Autor
        Shi, Peng
        Dong, Yinqiao
        Yan, Huanchang
        Zhao, Chenkai
        Li, Xiaoyang
        Liu, Wei
        He, Miao
        Tang, Shixing
        Xi, Shuhua
        Institución
        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
        Resumen
        A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect metaanalysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = −0.0100, 95% CI: −0.0125, −0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) andWuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.
        Materias
        COVID-19
        Temperature
        Dynamic transmission model

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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
        + de 8.000.000 publicaciones disponibles
        500 instituciones participantes
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Ingreso Administradores
        Colecciones destacadas
        • Tesis latinoamericanas
        • Tesis argentinas
        • Tesis chilenas
        • Tesis peruanas
        Nuevas incorporaciones
        • Argentina
        • Brasil
        • Colombia
        • México
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos | 2006-2018