Una estimación del impacto del componente comercial del acuerdo de Asociación entre Colombia y el Unión Europea, sobre la Economía Colombiana

Abstract

This research assesses the economic effects on the Colombian economy arising from the implementation of a trade agreement between the Andean Community and the European Union. The assessment is carried out by means of a multi-region computable general equilibrium model. It uses two sets of scenarios to achieve its objective. In the first, it is assumed that the trade agreement is implemented jointly by the two blocs. In the second, it is assumed that the negotiation is done on an individual basis and that Bolivia and Ecuador fail in reaching an agreement with the European Union. The results indicate that Colombia would attain welfare gains from complete trade liberalization in goods. They also show that these gains would be higher had Ecuador failed in liberalizing its trade. However, trade liberalization for agricultural goods, fruits and vegetables in particular, is critical for the results.