Efectos del Contrabando de Cigarrillo para la Industria: Un análisis del periodo 2012 - 2019

Abstract

During the last few years, the smuggling phenomenon has shown significant growth in Colombia, for 2019 the perspective of the central government and different groups of businessmen show provisional data regarding a possible decrease in this phenomenon, which is very unlikely. Regarding the cigarette sector, there has been an increase in illicit market share, for example the most recent studies estimate that for 2016 it was over 13% and for 2018 it increased to a range between 20 % and 25%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the causes of tobacco and cigarette smuggling in the country and the impact it has on the different market players in Colombia. Using a methodology of trends, variability, volatility, and market power, it is possible to establish preliminary estimates of the smuggling phenomenon and its effects on the tobacco industry at the national level. Using simulations for a case study to determine the incidence of smuggling in a particular firm, the new equilibrium and the expected profit are determined, simulations are also carried out to estimate the market value at risk, taking smuggling in the market as a decision variable. of tobacco, Parametric VaR Value at Risk and Montecarlo simulations are used for signing with data from the Financial Superintendence and the Superintendency of Companies. It is concluded that the incidence of smuggling has effects on the profitability of firms, causing significant reductions in profit margins. It is suggested from public policy to adopt effective control instruments for this phenomenon.