Desescalamiento del conflicto armado y rendimiento escolar: evidencia de la recomposición estudiantil como mecanismo potencial (2008-2019)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the ceasefire declared by the FARC guerrillas during the peace negotiations with the Colombian government on school performance at the end of secondary school (11th grade). To identify the causal effect, a difference-in-differences approximation is used on a municipal data panel. Intuitively, the ceasefire can improve the academic performance of students because they have a better environment to study, but it can also make people more vulnerable or less able to finish their studies. The first factor increases the average school performance at the municipal level, the second reduces it. Previous evidence shows that for lower grades (3rd, 5th and 9th) the ceasefire improved the academic performance of students. In this paper it is found that the ceasefire reduced academic performance in the 11th grade. It is shown that the ceasefire caused more students from poorer backgrounds to finish their high school studies and take the State exam to enter university. The mediation analysis shows that this change in composition contributes to partially explain the reduction in academic performance. The fact that the most vulnerable young people finish secondary school is a positive effect of the ceasefire. The findings show that the municipalities that left the FARC require comprehensive policies with an important educational component that help the poorest students improve their academic performance compared to their less vulnerable peers.