Metodología para la estimación de impactos hidráulicos y geomorfológicos por ascenso del nivel del mar en cuencas con llanuras costeras: caso de aplicación cuenca del río Sinú

dc.contributorVélez Upegui, Jaime Ignacio
dc.contributorBotero Fernández, Verónica Catalina
dc.contributorParra Jiménez, Juan David
dc.creatorCoy Pertuz, Manuel Mario
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-17T16:21:53Z
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-21T18:28:31Z
dc.date.available2021-02-17T16:21:53Z
dc.date.available2022-09-21T18:28:31Z
dc.date.created2021-02-17T16:21:53Z
dc.date.issued2020-04-20
dc.identifierhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/79265
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3408722
dc.description.abstractAll coastal regions are exposed to climate change effects in the long term. Analysis of historical sea level data suggest a dramatic increasing tendency, and there are not enough studies about the impact of this change upstream of river mouths. This work aims to address the change in the area of land susceptible to floodings associated with the estimated geomorphological changes in the river due to the sea level rise, the surface deformations, and the spatio-temporal evolution of the delta. The study case is the Sinu river basin, located in northeastern Colombia, and strongly a effected by the floodings related to the 2010-2011 La-Niña event, accounting for approximately -4.49% of the affected people in Colombia. Results suggest an average tectonic tilting rate of -4.36 mm/year, and in conjunction with the expected sea-level rise estimated by the IPCC, an increase of the sea level in the river delta above the global average at the end of 21st century. Under these scenarios, hydraulic simulations of the river suggest an increase of 156.86 km2 of land susceptible to flooding. The results of this work increase the future risk perception and should be included as elements for spatial planning and risk management.
dc.description.abstractEn el largo plazo todas las regiones costeras están expuestas a los efectos del cambio climático. El análisis de los datos históricos sobre el nivel del mar sugiere que las tendencias futuras a nivel global son alarmantes y el efecto de la propagación aguas arriba de las desembocaduras de los ríos es un tema poco estudiado. En esta investigación se aborda cómo cambiarán las áreas inundables producto de los cambios morfológicos esperados en el cauce como consecuencia del aumento del nivel del mar, la deformación de la superficie y la evolución espacio-temporal del delta. Se eligió como caso de estudio la cuenca del río Sinú, situada en la parte noroeste de la región Caribe de Colombia, principalmente porque la población afectada por las inundaciones en La Niña 2010 - 2011 equivale al 4.49% de las personas afectadas en el país. Los resultados indican que hay un basculamiento tectónico con tasa promedio de -4.36 mm/año y que en conjunto con el aumento esperado del nivel del mar para finales del siglo XXI estimado por el IPCC determinan que habría aumento relativo del nivel del mar más alto respecto a la media global. Las simulaciones hidráulicas de escenarios de cambio evidencian que habría aproximadamente 156.86 km2 de áreas nuevas susceptibles de inundarse. Estos resultados aumentan la percepción del riesgo futuro y señala la importancia de convertirse en un insumo para el ordenamiento territorial y la gestión del riesgo.
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherMedellín - Minas - Maestría en Ingeniería - Recursos Hidráulicos
dc.publisherDepartamento de Geociencias y Medo Ambiente
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellín
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dc.rightsAtribución-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
dc.rightsAtribución-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
dc.rightsAcceso abierto
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsDerechos reservados - Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.titleMetodología para la estimación de impactos hidráulicos y geomorfológicos por ascenso del nivel del mar en cuencas con llanuras costeras: caso de aplicación cuenca del río Sinú
dc.typeOtros


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