Impacto de factores zonales socioeconómicos, del uso del suelo y movilidad en la frecuencia de accidentes de tránsito en Bogotá

dc.contributorPedraza Bonilla, Cesar Augusto
dc.contributorDarghan Contreras, Aquiles Enrique
dc.creatorSandoval Pineda, Alejandro
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-01T17:16:16Z
dc.date.available2022-06-01T17:16:16Z
dc.date.created2022-06-01T17:16:16Z
dc.date.issued2022-05-31
dc.identifierhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/81473
dc.identifierUniversidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.identifierRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.identifierhttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/
dc.description.abstractLos accidentes de tránsito son eventos generalmente involuntarios y aleatorios generados por al menos un vehículo en movimiento que causa daños a personas y bienes involucrados en él. En Bogotá, estos son la segunda causa más importante de muerte violenta, cuestan en promedio un equivalente al 2,9% del Producto Interno Bruto de la ciudad y afectan la movilidad de aproximadamente 7 millones de habitantes, por lo que constituyen un problema transversal de salud, economía y movilidad. La estructura urbana de la ciudad establecida por los habitantes, los usos del suelo y la movilidad representan un factor ambiental de interés que se relaciona con los accidentes de tránsito. Un método para analizar la relación de estas variables con los accidentes de tránsito es mediante datos de área. El presente estudio tuvo como fin evaluar el impacto de variables socioeconómicas, del uso del suelo y movilidad en la frecuencia de accidentes de tránsito en el suelo urbano de Bogotá mediante el análisis de las unidades espaciales: Zonas de Análisis de Transporte y Unidades Territoriales de Análisis de Movilidad. Para ello, se evaluó el desempeño de modelos de regresión espacial y de soporte vectorial en la predicción de dos índices de accidentalidad vehicular que relacionan el total de accidentes de tránsito y las muertes ocasionadas por estos con el perímetro vial por unidad espacial, a partir de variables socioeconómicas, del uso del suelo y de movilidad. Se encontró que los modelos de regresión de soporte vectorial permiten modelar la autocorrelación espacial y tienen mejor rendimiento predictivo y bondad de ajuste que los modelos de regresión espacial. Además, los modelos en el nivel de Unidades Territoriales de Análisis de Movilidad tuvieron un mejor desempeño que en el nivel Zonas de Análisis de Transporte en la predicción de los índices de accidentalidad. Finalmente, se identificó que la tasa de viajes por persona en taxi y en motocicleta fueron las variables con mayor impacto en el incremento del total de accidentes de tránsito y las muertes ocasionadas por estos. (Texto tomado de la fuente)
dc.description.abstractTraffic crashes are generally involuntary and random events generated by at least one moving vehicle that cause damage to people and property involved in it. In Bogotá, these are the second most important cause of violent death, they cost on average an equivalent to 2.9% of the city's Gross Domestic Product and affect the mobility of approximately 7 million inhabitants, for which they constitute a transversal health, economy, and mobility problem. The urban structure of the city established by population, land uses, and mobility represent an environmental factor of interest that is related to traffic crashes. One method to analyze the relationship of these variables with traffic crashes is through area data. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic, land use and mobility variables on the frequency of traffic accidents in the urban area of Bogotá through the analysis of spatial units: Transport Analysis Zones and Territorial Mobility Analysis Units. To do this, the performance of spatial regression and vector support models was evaluated in the prediction of two vehicular accident rates that relate the total number of traffic crashes and the deaths caused by them with the road perimeter per spatial unit, based on socioeconomic, land use and mobility variables. It was found that support vector regression models allow spatial autocorrelation to be modeled and have better predictive performance and goodness of fit than spatial regression models. In addition, the models at the level of Territorial Mobility Analysis Units had a better performance than at the level of Transport Analysis Zones in predicting accident rates. Finally, it was identified that the rate of trips per person by taxi and by motorcycle were the variables with the greatest impact on the increase in total traffic accidents and the deaths caused by them.
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.publisherBogotá - Ciencias Agrarias - Maestría en Geomática
dc.publisherEscuela de posgrados
dc.publisherFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias
dc.publisherBogotá, Colombia
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá
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dc.rightsAtribución-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.titleImpacto de factores zonales socioeconómicos, del uso del suelo y movilidad en la frecuencia de accidentes de tránsito en Bogotá
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestría


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