The dynamic effects of economic disturbances over the permanent and transitory violence in colombia.

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to stablish the variables that affect the dynamics of Colombian violence showing the relations encountered between them; and to state based on the econometric evidence found what could be called "The provisional foundations for a theory to explain violence cycles in Colombia~The first part is methodological; it discusses the three well known econometric approaches for modeling business cycles: the traditional approach (trend stationay), the alternative one (difference stationary), and the Beveridge and Nelson (B and amp;N) decomposition of economic time series wich is the finally selected to obtain two types of violence for Colombia: permanent and transitory one.