Artículo de revista
The role of uncertainty in the design of sustainable and precautionary management strategies for fisheries
Fecha
2020Registro en:
Natural Resource Modeling. 2020; 33: e12279
10.1111/nrm.12279
Autor
Riquelme, Víctor
Quinn II, Terrance J.
Ramírez Cabrera, Héctor
Institución
Resumen
Environmental variability has a strong influence on
marine fish stocks. Thus, management and harvest
policies based on deterministic indicators, such as
maximum sustainable yield (MSY), may be inappropriate
facing such uncertainties. In this study,
we investigate the long‐term behavior of a singlespecies
fishery, whose stock is harvested by several
fleets and affected by variability in the recruitment.
The dynamics of this population is modeled by a
discrete‐time stochastic age‐structured model. In this
context, we introduce the concepts of maximum expected,
log expected, and harmonic expected sustainable
yield, as biological reference points. We
illustrate these concepts with a case study of the Patagonian
toothfish fishery in Chile and Argentina.
Via Monte‐Carlo simulations, we verify that high levels
of variability have a negative effect on all these
maximum expected reference points, which suggests
the need to be more cautious when large levels of
variability on recruitment impact the fishery. Our
simulations show that the deterministic MSY may
not be attained in the presence of environmental
noise, and therefore its use may lead to a failure of
management strategies or rebuilding plans.