Loss of landscape multifunctionality in La Tatacoa desert Colombian region, scenarios 2025 - 2050

Abstract

Landscape change is an opportunity to design multifunctional landscapes that meet multiple value goals (ecological, social, and economic). Thus,spatial analysis of multifunctional landscapes provides a scientific basis to landscape management policy in thefuture. Here, we analyze simulations of landscape structure and their ecosystem services associated for 2025 and 2050, as basis to multifunctional landscape management decisions in La Tatacoa region (Colombia). Our results indicate that by 2050 the natural and anthropic land coversthat provide the fourtypes of services (according to Millenium Ecosystem Assessment classification), especially regulation, support and provision,will have almost disappeared. Landscape will be dominated by bare lands which provide only eightof the 33 ecosystem services reported in this study, of which seven arecultural services. This situation puts the human well-being of inhabitants of the area at risk, which is why it is necessary to monitor changes in the multifunctionality of the landscape in order to prevent, mitigate and reverse negative effects of landscape change on the ecosystem services provision and human well-being.