Hydrological early warning system based on a deep learning runoff model coupled with a meteorological forecast

Abstract

© 2019 by the authors.The intensification of the hydrological cycle because of global warming raises concerns about future floods and their impact on large cities where exposure to these events has also increased. The development of adequate adaptation solutions such as early warning systems is crucial. Here, we used deep learning (DL) for weather-runoff forecasting in región Metropolitana of Chile, a large urban area in a valley at the foot of the Andes Mountains, with more than 7 million inhabitants. The final goal of this research is to develop an effective forecasting system to provide timely information and support in real-time decision making. For this purpose, we implemented a coupled model of a near-future global meteorological forecast with a short-range runoff forecasting system. Starting from a traditional hydrological conceptual model, we defined the hydro-meteorological and geomorphological variables that were used in the data-driven weather-runoff forecast models. The met