Cenários alternativos de política monetária para a economia brasileira a partir de um modelo de simulação: 1995-2015

Abstract

In a context of increasing financial integration with “capital mobility hypothesis” in mind some economists blinded by conventional textbooks argue that there is no room for national policy objectives such as greater production level in an environment of lower inflation. The new set of empirical studies about Brazilian economy does not support this sight. In the same spirit of this body of literature, the main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of an interest rate at an international level over the accumulation rate, price inflation and exchange rate for the next eight years in our economic history. By a macro model of simulation designed to Brazilian economy, with real and monetary sectors, some alternative scenarios were obtained. The study shows some limits and consequences over the accumulation, prices and exchange rate of an interest rate at an international level. The principal result is that, through monetary policy, according with his policy objectives, the government can choose within a wide spectrum the trajectory of some key variables such as rate of accumulation and exchange rate with stable prices over the next eight years of economic policy.