Oferta e demanda de empregos no Brasil mediante a modelagem ARIMA

Abstract

The national economic development is closely linked to the quantity of jobs available. So, to be able to study other variables responsible for this development, it is necessary to analyze data from admissions and dismissals. Therefore, by Box and Jenkins methodology, the aim of this study is to determine mathematical models to explain the behavior of these data using linear prediction models (ARIMA). The analysis refers to the amount of admissions and dismissals, from May 1999 until August 2014. The mathematical models found for the variable admissions was a SARIMA (2,1,0)(1,0,0)12 and for termination, also a SARIMA (2,1,0)(1,0,0)12. These models are able to predict the behavior of the series, following the economic activity of the country. Thus, one can provide a further study on economic development through these modeling, to identify the best times of the year for the exchange of employment where there is a greater amount of free jobs in the market and, if you use these models to combine the economic indices series and to support the behavior of these variations.