Dissertação
Heurística da ancoragem e ajustamento em estimativas numéricas de bens de consumo: uma aplicação considerando a estratificação socioeconômica dos agentes no município de Fortaleza - CE
Autor
Pereira, Ohanna Larissa Fraga
Institución
Resumen
Studies of the decision-making behavior of individuals in the Economis are progressively
diverging from the reductionist view of the mainstream conception of the homo economicus. In
this context, Behavioral Economics advances as an alternative to this approach, assuming that
the limited rationality of agents leads them to simplifying rules in decision making, called
heuristics. Tversky and Kahneman mapped three main heuristics, one of which is the anchoring
and adjustment heuristic, which occurs when the final estimate of the agent is based on a put
anchor, which is still insufficiently adjusted to produce a final biased response. The main
objective of this work is to analyze the effects of this heuristic on numerical estimates of
consumption items of the general population investigated and among the Low, Medium and
High socioeconomic Strata of the individuals from Fortaleza. For that, an empirical research
was carried out through the application of questionnaires with agents belonging to the three
socioeconomic strata cited, with subsequent analysis according to the statistical procedures
proposed by Jacowitz and Kahneman. The results indicated a great influence of the anchoring
effect on the decisions of the Fortaleza’s agents, especially of the low anchors. The Lower
Stratum was more influenced by the anchors than the Middle, which, in turn, suffered greater
influence than the High. The items common to the consumption basket of all strata had lower
Anchoring Indices, while goods and services with higher consumption inequalities showed
higher indices in the Lower Stratum, intermediate in the Middle Stratum and lower in the High
Stratum. In addition, it was possible to identify that the agents confidence in their estimations
has a direct relation with the anchoring effect, so that the individuals more uncertain about their
estimates suffered a greater effect of the anchors, while the more confident ones obtained
visibly lower anchoring indices, although significant. Thus, the data revealed that the
socioeconomic stratification is capable of affecting the numerical estimates of the individuals
through the anchoring heuristic and adjustment in the consumption environment.