Dissertação
A transição demográfica no Brasil: a distribuição espacial, oportunidades e desafios
Fecha
2015-02-26Registro en:
REICHERT, Henrique. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN BRAZIL: THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES. 2015. 106 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2015.
Autor
Reichert, Henrique
Institución
Resumen
Amongst the different population regimes historically occurred, the modern
demography transition period stands out. This population dynamic has been identified in
Brazil since the 70 s decade, when several changes on the composition of the population and
society happened. The works aims to analyze the demographic transition process in Brazil and
its regional and social peculiarities, identifying socioeconomic opportunities and challenges.
For that so, elements that originate this new population regime are investigated, moreover, a
descriptive analysis about the demographic changes in Brazil was done, based on the IBGE
projections. This way, it is identified that the Brazilian demographic bonus may end in 2022,
showing a subsequent older population profile. In the Brazilian global process, it is verified
the regional and social heterogeneity, coexisting both more advanced scenarios (south and
southeast areas) and less ones (north and northeast areas) in the age transition. Also, it is
verified that the economic growth seen since 1999 was directly connected with the increase
on people of working age. However, it is not known until when it will be possible to count on
this as an economic boost, once the increase of the number of people of working age is
slowing down. Furthermore, a consideration is given to the need of improvement on the
Brazilian productivity, a key element to sustain the growing of the elderly people. It may be
considered that there are serious challenges to be overcome by the Brazilian economy,
especially about the productive efficiency. On one side, the accumulation of physical capital
faces macroeconomic and institutional obstacles and on the other side, the accumulation of
human capital needs of educational provision of higher quality.