Método de previsão de demanda de ordens comerciais em uma distribuidora de energia elétrica

Abstract

The demand forecast is present in many sectors of the market however it plays a very important role in electric utility sector. This tool allows electric utility sector to plan its resources accurately, to improve the organization of its activities, among other key factors of a electric utility. This study focuses on the application of forecasting method for commercial orders in a electric utility. First, to performed the study case was necessary to assess the data available through graphics and correlation analysis to a subsequent application of exponential smoothing method of Hillier and Lieberman (2015), for each month and day of the week. As results, the method was able to simulate the behavior of real demand with percentage average errors according to the desired, being decided that the best way to use this method is forecast for each day of the week, which it would be need delete nonstandard values to increase the accuracy of this method.