Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017)

Abstract

The beginning of the third millennium brought with it a global financial crisis of multiple implications for the economies and for the international financial system. With the collapse, the doubts about the mechanisms of a monetary production economy that, related to the performance of the currency and the importance of credit and financing for the expenditure of families and firms, have changed since the beginning of the century XX to the present, creating processes of possible financial instability. The present work uses a modern post-Keynesian approach based on the "New Cambridge", of stock-flow consistent modeling, which tries to identify how the mismatch, over time, between the real sector and the financial sector of an economy is an important cause for how the modern economic system endogenously gests financial instability. Through an econometric time series modeling, which used data for the Brazilian economy quarterly between 2005 and 2017, the results demonstrate that in this period there was a tendency of families in Brazil to consume more through debt, than through disposable income. While funding is a key element of a modern-day monetary economy, the New Cambridge approach assists to alert that, not only can unsustainable financial processes appear in an economy, but they are persistent and can take a long time to adjust to be overcome - relegating the economy from a more sustained trajectory of growth. Thus, resources are being directed to the financial system instead of the productive system, through the worsening of families and firms‘ financial position, the high public bonds‘ debt, and forms of acquiring resources externally, even though it does not represent a scenario of external vulnerability, are heavily based in financing and through foreign direct investment which does not reinvests itself internally, becoming profit remittances. In the light of the ―New Cambridge‖ approach, the three Brazilian Financial Balances present, therefore, potential for financial instability, restricting economic growth by the financial units‘ adjustment period, in addition to being capable of gestating crises in the future.