Modelo computacional de crescimento, produção e análise econômica para povoamentos de Pinus taeda L.

Abstract

This study aimed to propose the development of a computational model (Software) for prognosis of growth, production, distribution of frequencies by diameter classes and economic viability analysis for deployment of Pinus taeda L. stands in the southern region of Brazil. The equations used in the programming of the simulator were obtained on the basis of the work developed by Schneider et al. (2007) for the city of Telêmaco Borba, in the State of Paraná and Schneider (2012) to Otacílio Costa, Santa Catarina State. The system was designed in the programming language Visual Basic, in the Visual Studio Express 2012 integrated development environment available for free by Microsoft. In addition to generate estimates of growth parameters of the settlement, the model allows the simulation of up to three thinnings in predefined by the user ages. The nested function from Weibull was used to describe the migration of trees to the upper diameter classes, and can be viewed graphically, directly in the system. The assortment module generates estimates of the volume of wood produced, for logs of different dimensions, diameter classes and for intervention. On economic analysis are generated estimates about future revenues and costs, in addition to the results for the economic parameters: NPV, VET, VAE, TIR and Right B/C, during the rotation. The export module allows the user to save the results in the form of spreadsheets (.xls), and use them for other purposes. The SQL database enabled the storage of information such as: cost centers, the dimensions of wood assortments and the price paid for each assortment. The simulation of different management schemes, for the site index of 28 that, the best management scheme would be obtained with three to 10 years: thinning, 14 years, 18 years and clear cut to 22 years, generating an output of 746.8 m ³ ha-1, with NPV of R$ 7088.9 ha-1, VET equal to R$ 8782.03 ha-1 representing a VAE of 627.6 R$ ha-1 year-1, 20.8% TIR and benefit/cost Ratio of R$ 1.82.