Development and Application of an International Vehicle Emissions Model

Abstract

Vehicle growth in developing nations is increasing rapidly, making it necessary for these nations to address the transportation and environmental impacts of on-road mobile sources. To estimate the air quality impact of their fleet, many nations have adopted modified versions of U.S.- or European-based emissions models or factors. In most cases, these models can lead to significant errors in emissions estimates. To address this problem, a new on-road mobile source emissions model designed for use in developing countries has been developed, called the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) Model. The IVE model was developed jointly by researchers at the International Sustainable Systems Research Center and the University of California at Riverside. The IVE model uses local vehicle technology distributions, power-based driving factors, vehicle soak distributions, and meteorological factors to tailor the model to the local situation. In addition, an intensive two-week field study was designed to collect the necessary fleet and activity data to populate the model with critical local information. The IVE model along with the field study process have proven to be highly effective in providing an improved estimate of mobile source emissions in an urban area and allows the effective analysis of local policy options. The studies have served to transfer tools and knowledge on the process of creating and improving mobile source inventories in an efficient manner. The rational behind the development of the model, development and application of the field studies, overview of the results to date, and planned next steps are described in this paper.