Artículo de revista
Modeling suspended solids in a Northern Chilean Patagonia glacier-fed fjord: GLOF scenarios under climate change conditions
Fecha
2013Registro en:
Ecological Modelling 264 (2013) 7– 16
doi 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.017
Autor
Marín Briano, Víctor
Tironi, Antonio
Paredes, María Alejandra
Contreras, Manuel
Institución
Resumen
Suspended solids play an ecologically important role in glacier-fed fjords, given its dominant effect on
their primary production arising from the generation of turbid water plumes by retreating glaciers,
which increase light attenuation. Glacial-lake outburst floods, GLOFs, are sudden releases of lake-water
impounded by a glacier which may affect either locally or regionally depending on the amount of water
and suspended solids released. Chilean Patagonia has been characterized by some of the fastest glacial
retreats worldwide and by an increase in GLOFs events. In this article we describe the development of
a hydrodynamic model to study the distribution of suspended solids in the Baker channel, a glacier-fed
fjord located in Northern Chilean Patagonia. We further describe the simulation of three climate change
induced GLOF scenarios and discuss their potential effects on fjord’s primary production. The model was
implemented as a two-level, one-way, nested hierarchy using the MOHID water modeling system. The
large extent, oceanic, level corresponded to a one-layer barotropic model, while the smaller extent, fjord,
level corresponded to a 3D baroclinic model with 31 Cartesian layers. Velocities, salinity and suspended
solids concentrations were calibrated using field measurements. Results show that the most likely scenario
is a decrease in light penetration within the inner fjord’s area. Only the most catastrophic scenario,
equivalent to a large recorded paleo-discharge, would affect outer areas of the Northern Chilean fjords.