Modelo de gestión de la red de distribución tercerizada segmento tiendas región central, en productos de consumo masivo, mediante datos de panel y simulación de Monte Carlo.

Abstract

The investigation project is based on the dynamics of the outsourced distribution model for a massive consumerism company in Colombia, specialized in dairy products, which have been denominated “lactose” in this study. Through panel data with case study, two demand models are built. They are classified by product category and distributor, and through stochastic simulation, the relevant variables that influence its costs structures are identified. The problem is modeled parting from the state of results for each one of the four distributors analyzed in the central region of the country. The structure of costs and the behavior of the sales given a distribution logistic margin (%) are analyzed, in function of the relevant independent variables, and referred to the business, to the market and to the macroeconomic environment, described in the object of study. Amongst other findings, the noticeable gaps in distribution costs and sales strength stand out, in spite of the homogeneity of the segments. Identifies value and costs generators of greater individual dispersion and suggests strategic unions forms by some distributor groups. The modeling with panel data identifies the relevant management variables that influence the volume of the sales by category and distributor, which focuses on the efforts of the directives. It is recommended to lower the gaps and promote from the producer, strategies that are focused on the standardization of internal processes of the distributors; also to promote and replicate the analysis models, without replacing the knowledge of experts. The construction of sceneries strengthens in a joint and safe way the competitive position of the company and its distributors.