Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes
Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes
dc.creator | Ferro Ramos, I.; Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba. | |
dc.creator | Pérez Doval, J.; Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba. | |
dc.creator | Cepero Chao, T.; Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba. | |
dc.date | 2012-08-02 | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-03-16T15:51:57Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-03-16T15:51:57Z | |
dc.identifier | http://ojs.unam.mx/index.php/geofisica/article/view/39471 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/1203156 | |
dc.description | Con la ayuda del medio ambiente ARIES fueron obtenidos dos sistemas expertos para el pronóstico de la ocurrencia de destellos asociados a las clases de Zurich C y D, uno para el pronóstico diario de la situación destellante (sistema experto FUL) y otro para pronosticar los destellos que ocurran dentro de las 24 horas después de la hora de observación del grupo de manchas asociado (sistema experto FULGOR). La efectividad general de las bases de conocimiento es 80%. Ellas operan sobre el 44% de las manchas-día, las cuales producen el 66% de los destellos. En ambos casos, la calidad del pronóstico es superior a la efectividad del mejor de los pronósticos triviales, el pronóstico ciego. | es-ES |
dc.description | With the help of shell ARIES two expert systems are obtained for forecasting the occurrence of flares associated with the C and D Zurich classes: one for daily forecasting of the flare situation (expert system FUL) and the other for flares that occur 24 hours after the observation of the associated sunspot group (expert system FULGOR). General effectiveness of the bases is 80%. They operate upon 44% of sunspot-day which produce 66% of flares.In both cases, the quality of the forecast /is’ better than the effectiveness of the best trivial forecasting, the blind one. | en-US |
dc.format | application/pdf | |
dc.language | spa | |
dc.publisher | Instituto de Geofísica | es-ES |
dc.relation | http://ojs.unam.mx/index.php/geofisica/article/view/39471/35905 | |
dc.source | Geofísica Internacional; Vol 31, No 2 (1992) | es-ES |
dc.source | 0016-7169 | |
dc.subject | Destellos solares, pronóstico solar. | es-ES |
dc.subject | Solar flares, solar forecasting. | en-US |
dc.title | Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes | es-ES |
dc.title | Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes | en-US |
dc.type | Artículos de revistas | |
dc.type | Artículos de revistas |